Thursday, June 20, 2013

HLS Law Enforcement: Participation Activity

In the article, A Better Method to Smooth Crime Incident Data, crime data from the New York City Police Department On-Line Complaint System is used to compare the differences between methods of kernel estimation. Kernel estimation is the spatial statistical method used to generate density maps. Police departments use crime density maps to identify crime hotspots and plan patrol schedules, so it is important that the map is as accurate as possible. In this week's lab we used crime data from Washington DC to generate crime density maps and propose a location for a new police station. The kernel estimation method used in the lab was based on the areal extent of Washington DC. However, as this article points out, there is a more accurate method for kernel estimating.

Kernel smoothing estimates the variation in density of events based on a point pattern, resulting in a map of smooth density values. Kernel estimation is successful in making sense of complex point patterns. The most important step in kernel estimation is selecting the bandwidth. Maps generated with a small bandwidth are spiky in appearance, and those maps generated with a large bandwidth appear smooth and generalized. As with either method, density maps can then be used to create other datasets for further analysis.

Most GIS programs base its kernel estimation on the areal extent of the event data without considering the spatial distribution of the points. The result is large bandwidths being selected for small sample sizes and small bandwidths for the large. This article proposes selecting the bandwidth based on a predetermined number of points, or neighbors, represented by the variable 'k' called the k-nearest neighbor method. This method bases the bandwidth on the average distances between the event data. Varying the value of 'k' allows the GIS analyst to specify the degree of smoothing which reveals the previously unrealized variation in density across the study area. This added capability must be used with caution though, as the user defined input can still result in a misleading or inaccurate map.

http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0199/crimedata.html

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